1 — A question appeared

Example: “Will Team India win tomorrow’s match? Yes or No.” Questions spanned cricket, elections, cryptocurrency prices, film box office numbers, weather events, and news.

2 — You chose Yes or No and staked money

Each Yes/No contract was priced between ₹0.50 and ₹9.50, moving with demand. The price reflected the market’s collective probability estimate — if Yes was at ₹7, the market thought there was roughly a 70% chance.

3 — The event resolved

When the real-world event concluded, Probo settled the contract. The winning side received ₹10 per contract. The losing side received ₹0. Probo took a spread (the difference between buy and sell prices) as its revenue.

4 — You could exit early

Unlike a fixed bet, you could sell your Yes or No position before the event resolved — locking in a profit or cutting a loss as the market price moved. This is what made it look like trading rather than gambling.

✅ Probo’s Argument

Opinion trading is a game of skill — the same argument used by Dream11. Researching a cricket player’s form, tracking polling trends, or analysing crypto markets requires knowledge. Similar platforms (like Kalshi in the US) are regulated as legitimate financial instruments by the CFTC. The price discovery mechanism resembles a prediction market, not a casino.

❌ Government’s Argument

A binary Yes/No stake on an outcome you do not control is chance, not skill, and therefore betting. The ED characterised Probo as “gambling disguised as prediction trading.” Multiple state governments took the same position, banning the platform before the central law passed. The Supreme Court was hearing consolidated petitions on exactly this question when the 2025 act made it largely moot.