🌍 GLOBAL COMPARISON · July 2026

Prediction Markets Worldwide:
Why Kalshi Is Legal in the US but Probo Is Not in India

Prediction markets are legal, regulated, and growing in the United States. India chose the opposite route with the Online Gaming Act 2025. Same product category, fundamentally different regulatory outcomes. Here is the full comparison — and what it means for India’s future.

📅 Last verified: 15 July 2026🔗 Every claim sourced

⚡ The Core Difference

In the US, platforms like Kalshi operate under Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) regulation — prediction markets are treated as a legitimate financial instrument. In India, the same product category was treated as gambling and banned under the Online Gaming Act 2025. Same mechanics, different regulatory philosophy, fundamentally different outcomes for users and operators.

Legal ✅

Prediction markets in the US, regulated by CFTC — platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket operate openly

Banned ❌

Real-money opinion trading in India — banned under the Online Gaming Act 2025 from August 2025

$1B+

Volume on US CFTC-regulated prediction markets in 2024–25 — a category India banned entirely

How Kalshi and US prediction markets work

Kalshi is the largest CFTC-regulated prediction market exchange in the United States. Users trade Yes/No contracts on questions ranging from economic data (will CPI exceed 3%?) to political events (will the Fed raise rates?) to sports. The mechanics are nearly identical to what Probo offered in India — binary contracts, price-discovery between 0 and $1, early exit possible.

✅ What makes Kalshi legal

CFTC Designation as a DCM

Kalshi is designated as a Designated Contract Market by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission — the same regulator that oversees futures and derivatives markets. This classification makes its contracts legally regulated financial instruments.

Customer Protections

User funds are segregated (held separately from company funds), the platform is audited, and users have formal legal recourse. None of these protections existed for Probo users.

Price Discovery Recognised

The CFTC views prediction market contracts as providing genuine price discovery on real-world outcomes — the same argument Probo made in India, which the government rejected.

❌ What India found objectionable

Classification as Gambling

The Enforcement Directorate classified Probo’s operations as gambling disguised as trading, regardless of the price-discovery mechanism. Indian law does not have a CFTC-equivalent framework for regulated prediction markets.

No Regulatory Framework

India lacks a regulator equivalent to the CFTC for prediction contracts. Without a designated regulatory body to license and supervise these platforms, they operated in a grey zone that the 2025 Act closed entirely.

Addictive Behaviour and Minors

The ED found that Probo’s verification was weak enough that minors could use the app. In the US, Kalshi has strict identity verification. The absence of consumer protection infrastructure strengthened the case for a ban in India.

Full comparison: Kalshi (US) vs Probo (India)

FactorKalshi (US)Probo (India)
Regulatory BodyCFTC (Designated Contract Market)None — regulated as gambling
Legal Status (2026)✅ Fully Legal❌ Banned (Aug 2025)
Fund Segregation✅ Required by CFTC❌ Not mandated
User Identity Verification✅ Strict KYC⚠️ Weak (minors could register)
MechanicsBinary Yes/No contractsBinary Yes/No contracts
Govt ClassificationFinancial instrument (futures)Gambling / real-money online game

Could India ever regulate prediction markets?

Theoretically yes. The US path shows it is possible to treat prediction markets as a regulated financial category rather than gambling. For India to follow a similar route, it would need: a designated regulator (SEBI or a new body) with authority over prediction contracts, a licensing framework for operators, mandatory fund segregation and KYC requirements, and either an amendment to the Online Gaming Act 2025 or a new legislative framework.

None of these are currently being discussed in Parliament as of July 2026. The political direction has been toward restriction, not regulated opening. However, the global growth of prediction markets — and India’s generally sophisticated regulatory approach to fintech through SEBI and RBI — means the question is not permanently closed.

📡 We monitor regulatory developments. If India moves toward a licensed prediction market framework, this page will document it — with dates and sources.

Frequently Asked Questions

▶Is Kalshi legal in India?

No. Kalshi operates under US CFTC regulation and is available to US users. It is not licensed to operate in India, and accessing it from India to trade with real money would involve using a platform not regulated in your jurisdiction. This is separate from the Probo situation — Kalshi is a legitimate regulated exchange, but for US users.

▶Why did the US legalise prediction markets when India banned them?

The US has a mature derivatives regulatory framework (CFTC) that was able to classify prediction contracts as regulated instruments. India lacks an equivalent regulator for this category, and the political and judicial environment treated opinion trading as gambling rather than financial trading.

▶Is Polymarket legal?

Polymarket is a cryptocurrency-based prediction market that operates globally. Its legal status in India is uncertain — it uses crypto, which adds another regulatory layer. This article makes no recommendation on using Polymarket from India.

▶Could Probo have been legal if it operated differently?

Possibly. With strict KYC, fund segregation, a regulatory licence, and a legal framework to sit within — the path Kalshi took in the US — opinion trading might have been arguable as a regulated financial instrument. But India did not have that framework, and building it would have required regulatory action Probo could not unilaterally create.

▶What about crypto prediction markets?

Crypto-based prediction markets (like Polymarket) exist in a separate regulatory grey zone involving both the gaming law and India’s crypto regulations. This page does not cover crypto prediction markets as they involve significant additional legal complexity.

📚 Sources

Kalshi — CFTC-regulated prediction market
CFTC — US Commodity Futures Trading Commission
Storyboard18 — Probo shuts operations in India

Disclaimer: Informational only, not legal or financial advice. Verified 15 July 2026.